2020 United States presidential election - en.LinkFang.org

2020 United States presidential election




2020 United States presidential election

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Nominee Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Joe Biden
(presumptive)
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida[a] Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence
(presumptive)
TBA

The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census.

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020,[2] to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence respectively. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are being held from February to August 2020. This nominating process is an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's nominees for president and vice president. The election will occur simultaneously alongside elections for the House of Representatives, Senate, and various state and local-level elections.

Donald Trump, the 45th and incumbent president, has launched a re-election campaign for the Republican primaries; several state Republican Party organizations have cancelled their primaries in a show of support for his candidacy.[3] Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee on March 17, 2020, after securing a majority of pledged delegates.[4] 29 major candidates launched campaigns for the Democratic nomination, which became the largest field of candidates for any political party in the post-reform period of American politics. Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee when Senator Bernie Sanders, the only other remaining major candidate in the Democratic primary, suspended his campaign on April 8, 2020. In early June, Biden passed the threshold of 1,991 delegates to gain the nomination at the 2020 Democratic National Convention. The Libertarian Party nominated professor Jo Jorgensen as its candidate during an online convention on May 23, 2020, making Jorgensen the first female presidential nominee of that party.[5] Green Party co-founder Howie Hawkins became the party's presumptive nominee on June 20, 2020, after securing a majority of pledged delegates in the Green Party primaries.

Biden and Trump are respectively the oldest and second-oldest major party presumptive nominees in U.S. history;[b] and if Biden is elected and inaugurated, he will also become the oldest serving president.[c] The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Contents

Background


Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, who is then ratified by the delegates (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[6] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals.

On August 26, 2019, the Maine legislature passed a bill adopting ranked-choice voting both for presidential primaries and for the general election.[7][8] On September 6, 2019, Governor Janet Mills allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but puts Maine on track to be the first state to use ranked-choice voting for a presidential general election. The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of electors, as Maine and Nebraska have used in recent elections.[9] The change could potentially delay the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for days after election day,[10] and will also complicate interpretation of the national popular vote.[11]

The Twenty-second Amendment states that an individual cannot be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. Former President Jimmy Carter, having served only a single term as president, is not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election, though he has no plans to do so, saying, "95 is out of the question. I'm having a hard time walking. I think the time has passed for me to be involved actively in politics, much less run for president."[12]

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be people in the 18-to-45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[13]

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and other ethnic minorities, as well as "whites with a college degree", are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. Generation Z, those born after 1996, will more than double to 10% of the eligible voters.[14] Traditionally, these shifts have been thought to be potentially advantageous for the Democratic nominee, as all groups increasing in size have historically voted for Democrats in significantly larger numbers than Republicans, a trend which continues to today. However, the rate at which these groups, especially Generation Z, vote for Democrats is decreasing, with non-whites[15] and young voters[16] both voting for and supporting Republicans at higher rates than before 2016. To further complicate matters, this is counteracted by whites and 65+ voters both voting for and supporting Democrats at a higher rate. These shifts have been slight overall nationally but substantially larger in swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa.[17][18][19][20] These shifts tend to occur more geographically favorably for Republicans than Democrats,[21] thus; it is possible Trump could win the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[22]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur simultaneously with elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Gubernatorial and legislative elections will also be held in several states. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect which also helps other candidates of that party win elections.[23] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[24]

Impeachment

The House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump on two counts on December 18, 2019.[25] The trial in the Senate began on January 21, 2020,[26] and ended on February 5, resulting in acquittal by the United States Senate.[27]

This is the first time a president has been impeached during his first term and while running for a second term.[28] Trump continued to hold campaign rallies during the impeachment.[29][30] This is also the first time since the modern presidential primaries were established in 1911 that a president has been subjected to impeachment while the primary season was underway.[31] The impeachment process overlapped with the primary campaigns, forcing senators running for the Democratic nomination to remain in Washington for the trial in the days before and after the Iowa caucuses.[32][33]

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

Several events related to the 2020 presidential election have been altered or postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.[34][35] On March 12, President Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies.[36] The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C.[37] Several states have also postponed their primaries to a later date, including Georgia,[38] Kentucky,[39] Louisiana,[40] Ohio,[41] and Maryland.[42] As of March 24, 2020, all major-party presidential candidates have halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies over coronavirus concerns. Political analysts have stated that the moratorium on traditional campaigning coupled to the effects of the pandemic on the nation could have unpredictable effects on the voting populace and possibly, how the election will be conducted.[43][44][45]

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act included money for states to increase mail-in voting however the Trump campaign have strongly opposed mail-in-voting because they believe that it would cause widespread voter fraud, however this has been debunked by a number of media organizations. [46][47]

Government response to the impact of the pandemic from the Trump administration, coupled to the differing positions taken by congressional Democrats and Republicans regarding economic stimulus remains a major campaign issue for both parties.[48][49]

Due to the coronavirus pandemic spread in the United States, and the subsequent effects like the stay-at-home order and social distancing guidelines by local governments, all presidential candidates are unable to hold campaign rallies and public gatherings. As a result, at the daily White House coronavirus briefing in April, Trump played a campaign-style video praising himself for his early response to the pandemic while lambasting his opponent and lambasting the press as "fake news media" in the process.[50][51] According to Trump, it was the media who was initially "downplaying the effects of the virus."[52] This behavior led to comments by pundits and the press that Trump is using the daily White House coronavirus briefings to replace his campaign rallies and benefit him politically.[53]

In early April, Trump and Biden held a "cordial" phone call to discuss the effects of the coronavirus, where Biden provided advice for the president in resolving the pandemic.[54]

On April 6, the Supreme Court and Republicans in the State Legislature of Wisconsin rebuffed Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers's request to move the election in Wisconsin to June. As a result, the election (among them was a presidential primary) went ahead as planned.[55] At least seven new cases of the coronavirus infection were traced to this election. Voting-rights advocates have expressed fear of similar chaos on a nationwide scale in November, recommending states to move to expand vote-by-mail options.[56]

On June 20, despite continuing concerns over COVID-19,[57] the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled that Trump's campaign could hold a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma at the Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) Center. Originally scheduled for June 19, the Trump campaign changed the date of this gathering due to the Juneteenth holiday.[58] The rally was widely viewed as a failure, with attendances far lower than expected.[59][60]

Russian interference

On February 13, 2020, American intelligence officials advised members of the House Intelligence Committee that Russia was interfering in the 2020 election in an effort to get Trump re-elected.[61] The briefing was delivered by Shelby Pierson, the intelligence community's top election security official and an aide to acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire. On February 21, 2020, The Washington Post reported that, according to unnamed US officials, Russia was interfering in the Democratic primary in an effort to support the nomination of Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders issued a statement after the news report, saying in part, "I don't care, frankly, who Putin wants to be president. My message to Putin is clear: stay out of American elections, and as president I will make sure that you do."[62] Sanders acknowledged that his campaign was briefed about Russia's alleged efforts about a month prior.[63]

Nominations


Republican Party nomination

Primaries

In election cycles with incumbent presidents running for re-election, the race for their party nomination are usually pro-forma, with token opposition instead of any serious challengers and with their party rules being fixed in their favor.[64][65] The 2020 election is no exception; with Donald Trump formally seeking a second term,[66][67] the official Republican apparatus, both state and national, have coordinated with his campaign to implement changes to make it difficult for any primary opponent to mount a serious challenge.[68][69] On January 25, 2019, the Republican National Committee unofficially endorsed Trump.[70]

Several Republican state committees have scrapped their respective primaries or caucuses.[71] They have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[72][73] After cancelling their races, some of those states like Hawaii and New York immediately pledged their delegates to Trump,[74][75] while other such states like Kansas and Nevada later formally held a convention or meeting to officially award their delegates to him.[76][77]

In addition, the Trump campaign urged Republican state committees that used proportional methods to award delegates in 2016 (where a state's delegates are basically divided proportionally among the candidates based on the vote percentage) to switch to a "winner-takes-all" (where the winning candidate in a state gets all its delegates) or "winner-takes-most" (where the winning candidate only wins all of the state's delegates if he exceeds a predetermined amount, otherwise they are divided proportionally) for 2020.[65][78]

Nevertheless, reports arose beginning in August 2017 that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against the President, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party. Then-Arizona senator John McCain said, "Republicans see weakness in this president."[79][80] Maine senator Susan Collins, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie all expressed doubts in 2017 that Trump would be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[81][82] Senator Jeff Flake claimed in 2017 that Trump was "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he was governing.[83] Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicted in May 2018 that Trump might not seek a second term were he to succeed in keeping all his campaign promises and "mak[ing] America great again".[84]

Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld became Trump's first major challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, 2019.[85] Weld, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee for vice president in 2016, was considered a long shot because of the popularity of Trump within his own party and Weld's positions on issues such as abortion, gun control and same-sex marriage that conflicted with conservative positions on those issues.[86]

In addition, businessman Rocky De La Fuente entered the race on May 16, 2019, but was not widely recognized as a major candidate.

Former Illinois representative Joe Walsh launched a primary challenge on August 25, 2019, saying, "I'm going to do whatever I can. I don't want [Trump] to win. The country cannot afford to have him win. If I'm not successful, I'm not voting for him."[87] Walsh ended his presidential bid on February 7, 2020, after drawing around 1% support in the Iowa caucuses. Walsh declared that "nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary" because the Republican Party was now "a cult" of Trump. According to Walsh, Trump supporters had become "followers" who think that Trump "can do no wrong", after absorbing misinformation "from 'conservative' media. They don't know what the truth is and — more importantly — they don't care."[88]

On September 8, 2019, former South Carolina governor and representative Mark Sanford officially announced that he would be another Republican primary challenger to Trump.[89] He dropped out of the race 65 days later on November 12, 2019, after failing to gain support in Republican circles.[90]

Donald Trump's re-election campaign has essentially been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[91] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 p.m., he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, by which he reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[92] Trump has run an active campaign during the primary season, even holding rallies in the February primary states, including South Carolina and Nevada where those Republican races were canceled.[93][94]

Through Super Tuesday, March 3, Trump won every race. Including those states who have canceled their races and have awarded their delegates to him, Trump through Super Tuesday won an estimated 1,023 of the 1,276 required to officially become the presumptive Republican Party nominee.[95] After the March 10 primaries, he was a mere 11 delegates shy of clinching the nomination, which he did the following week. As of March 21, he had received over 11 million votes.

On March 17, 2020, having won enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention, Trump became the presumptive nominee.[96] Weld suspended his campaign the next day.[97]

Presumptive nominee

Presumptive 2020 Republican Party ticket
Donald Trump Mike Pence
for President for Vice President
45th
President of the United States
(2017–present)
48th
Vice President of the United States
(2017–present)
Campaign

Candidates

The following major candidates have either: (a) held public office, (b) been included in a minimum of five independent national polls, or (c) received substantial media coverage.[98][99][100]

Candidates in this section are sorted by popular vote
Bill Weld Joe Walsh Rocky De La Fuente Mark Sanford
Governor of Massachusetts
(1991–1997)
U.S. Representative from IL-08
(2011–2013)
Businessman and Perennial candidate U.S. Representative from SC-01
(1995–2001, 2013–2019)
Governor of South Carolina
(2003–2011)
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: March 18, 2020
391,472 votes
1 delegate
W: February 7, 2020
169,713 votes

Accepted
3rd party nomination
April 23, 2020
85,306 votes

W: November 12, 2019
4,258 votes

[101][102] [103][104] [105] [89][106]

Democratic Party nomination

Primaries

In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This would require a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[107] Meanwhile, six states will use ranked-choice voting in the primaries: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming for all voters; and Iowa and Nevada for absentee voters.[108]

After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[109] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[110][111] In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats hoped to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politico's Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war".[112] Meanwhile, there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.[113][114]

Overall, the 2020 primary field had 29 major candidates,[115] breaking the record for the largest field under the modern presidential primary system previously set during the 2016 GOP primaries with 17 major candidates.[116] Several female candidates entered the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.[117]

Entering the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020, however, the field had decreased to 11 major candidates. Pete Buttigieg narrowly defeated Bernie Sanders in Iowa, then Sanders edged Buttigieg in the February 11 New Hampshire primary. Following Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, and Andrew Yang dropping out, Sanders won the Nevada caucuses on February 22. Joe Biden then won the South Carolina primary, causing Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer to abandon their campaigns (Buttigieg and Klobuchar then immediately endorsed Biden). After Super Tuesday, March 3, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren quit the race, leaving three candidates left: Biden and Sanders, the main contenders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who remained in the race despite facing nigh-on insurmountable odds.[118] Gabbard then dropped out and endorsed Biden after the March 17 Arizona, Florida, and Illinois races.[119] On April 8, 2020, Sanders dropped out, reportedly after being convinced by former president Barack Obama, leaving Biden as the only major candidate remaining, and the presumptive nominee.[120][121] Biden then gained endorsements from Obama, Sanders and Warren.[122] By June 5, 2020, Biden had officially gained enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention.[123]

Presumptive nominee

Presumptive 2020 Democratic Party ticket
Joe Biden TBD
for President for Vice President
47th
Vice President of the United States
(2009–2017)
Campaign

Candidates

The following major candidates have either: (a) served as vice president, a member of the cabinet, a U.S. senator, a U.S. representative, or a governor, (b) been included in a minimum of five independent national polls, or (c) received substantial media coverage.

Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal
Bernie Sanders Tulsi Gabbard Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Amy Klobuchar Pete Buttigieg Tom Steyer
U.S. senator from Vermont
(2007–present)
U.S. representative from VT-AL
(1991–2007)
U.S. representative from HI-02
(2013–present)
U.S. senator from Massachusetts
(2013–present)
Mayor of New York City, New York
(2002–2013)
CEO of Bloomberg L.P.
U.S. senator from Minnesota
(2007–present)
Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
(2012–2020)
Hedge fund manager
Founder of Farallon Capital and Beneficial State Bank
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: April 8, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
8,823,936 votes
1,051 delegates

W: March 19, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
233,079 votes
2 delegates

W: March 5, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
2,668,057 votes
58 delegates

W: March 4, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
2,430,062 votes
43 delegates

W: March 2, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
501,332 votes
7 delegates

W: March 1, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
874,727 votes
21 delegates

W: February 29, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
250,513 votes


[124][125] [126][127] [128][129] [130][131] [132][133] [134][135] [136][137]
Deval Patrick Michael Bennet Andrew Yang John Delaney Cory Booker Marianne Williamson Julián Castro
Governor of Massachusetts
(2007–2015)
U.S. senator from Colorado
(2009–present)
Entrepreneur
Founder of Venture for America
U.S. representative from MD-06
(2013–2019)
U.S. senator from New Jersey
(2013–present)
Mayor of Newark, New Jersey
(2006–2013)
Author
Founder of Project Angel Food
Independent candidate for U.S. House from CA-33 in 2014
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
(2014–2017)
Mayor of San Antonio, Texas
(2009–2014)
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: February 12, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
20,761 votes

W: February 11, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
43,682 votes

W: February 11, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
119,862 votes

W: January 31, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
15,985 votes

W: January 13, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
30,191 votes

W: January 10, 2020

(endorsed Sanders)
21,993 votes

W: January 2, 2020

(endorsed Warren, then Biden)
36,694 votes

[138][139] [140][141] [142][143] [144][145] [146][147] [148][149] [150][151]
Kamala Harris Steve Bullock Joe Sestak Wayne Messam Beto O'Rourke Tim Ryan Bill de Blasio
U.S. senator from California
(2017–present)
Attorney General of California
(2011–2017)
Governor of Montana
(2013–present)
Attorney General of Montana
(2009–2013)
U.S. representative from PA-07
(2007–2011)
Former Vice Admiral of the United States Navy
Mayor of Miramar, Florida
(2015–present)
U.S. representative from TX-16
(2013–2019)
U.S. representative from OH-13
(2013–present)
U.S. representative from OH-17
(2003–2013)
Mayor of New York City, New York
(2014–present)
N/A
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: December 3, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
844 votes

W: December 2, 2019


549 votes

W: December 1, 2019

(endorsed Klobuchar)
5,251 votes

W: November 19, 2019


0 votes[d]

W: November 1, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
1 vote[d]

W: October 24, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
0 votes[d]

W: September 20, 2019

(endorsed Sanders)
0 votes[d]

[152][153] [154][155] [156][157] [158][159] [160][161] [162][163] [164][165]
Kirsten Gillibrand Seth Moulton Jay Inslee John Hickenlooper Mike Gravel Eric Swalwell Richard Ojeda
U.S. senator from New York
(2009–present)
U.S. representative from NY-20
(2007–2009)
U.S. representative from MA-06
(2015–present)
Governor of Washington
(2013–present)
U.S. representative from WA-01
(1999–2012)
U.S. representative from WA-04
(1993–1995)
Governor of Colorado
(2011–2019)
Mayor of Denver, Colorado
(2003–2011)
U.S. senator from Alaska
(1969–1981)
U.S. representative from CA-15
(2013–present)
West Virginia state senator from WV-SD07
(2016–2019)
N/A
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: August 28, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
0 votes[d]

W: August 23, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
0 votes[d]

W: August 21, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
1 vote[d]

W: August 15, 2019

(endorsed Bennet)
1 vote[d]

W: August 6, 2019

(endorsed Gabbard and Sanders, then Howie Hawkins)
0 votes[d]

W: July 8, 2019


0 votes[d]

W: January 25, 2019


0 votes[d]

[166][167] [168][169] [170][171] [172][173] [174][175] [176][177] [178][179]

Libertarian Party nomination

Nominee

2020 Libertarian Party ticket
Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen
for President for Vice President
Senior Lecturer at Clemson University Podcaster and businessman
Campaign

Candidates

Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal
Jacob Hornberger Vermin Supreme John Monds James P. Gray Adam Kokesh Dan Behrman
Founder and President of the Future of Freedom Foundation Performance artist, activist, and political satirist Former President of the
Grady County, Georgia NAACP
Former presiding judge for the
Superior Court of Orange County, California
Libertarian and anti-war political activist Software engineer and podcaster
N/A N/A N/A
N/A Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign N/A
W: May 23, 2020
8,986 votes
(20.55%)
236 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
4,288 votes
(9.81%)
171 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
1 vote
(<0.01%)
147 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
42 votes
(0.10%)
98 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
2,728 votes
(6.24%)
77 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
2,337 votes
(5.34%)
0 first round delegates
[180] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184]
Sam Robb Justin Amash Ken Armstrong Lincoln Chafee Max Abramson Kim Ruff
Software engineer and author
Former naval officer
U.S. representative
from MI-03
(2011–present)
U.S. Coast Guard
commissioned officer
(1977–1994)
Governor of Rhode Island
(2011–2015)
U.S. Senator from Rhode Island
(1999–2007)

New Hampshire State Representative
(2014–2016; 2018–present)
Vice chair of the
LPRadical Caucus
N/A N/A N/A
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign N/A
W: May 23, 2020
1,943 votes
(5.06%)
0 first round delegates
W: May 17, 2020
3 votes
(0.01%)
17 first round delegates
W: April 29, 2020
3,509 votes
(8.03%)
0 first round delegates
W: April 5, 2020
294 votes
(0.67%)
1 (write-in) first round delegate
W: March 3, 2020
2,052 votes
(5.34%)
0 first round delegates
W: January 11, 2020
3,045 votes
(7.93%)
0 first round delegates
[184] [185] [186] [187] [188] [189]

Green Party nomination

In October 2019, Howie Hawkins won the nomination of the Socialist Party USA.[190] Hawkins became the presumptive nominee of the Green Party on the 21st of June 2020.[191]

Presumptive nominee

Presumptive 2020 Green Party ticket
Howie Hawkins Angela Walker
for President for Vice President
Co-founder of the Green Party ATU Local 998 Legislative Director
(2011–2013)
Campaign

Candidates

Candidates in this section are sorted by delegate count
Dario Hunter
Officially Recognized
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry Dennis Lambert Jesse Ventura David Rolde
Officially Recognized
Member of the Youngstown Board of Education (2016–2020) Activist Documentary Filmmaker Governor of Minnesota (1999–2003) Co-chair of the Greater Boston Chapter of the Green-Rainbow Party
N/A N/A N/A
Campaign N/A N/A N/A N/A
89.5 delegates
(20.1%)
3,087 votes
10.5 delegates
(3.0%)
2,229 votes
9 delegates
(2.6%)
2,029 votes
8 delegates
(1.7%)
>49 votes
5.5 delegates
(1.6%)
960 votes
[192] [193] [194] No Candidacy [195]

Other nominations and independent candidates

Party conventions


The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled for July 13–16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin,[196][197] but was delayed to August 17–20 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.[198] On June 24, 2020 it was announced that the convention would be held in a mixed online-in person format, with most delegates attending remotely but a few still attending the physical convention site.[199]

The 2020 Republican National Convention is planned to be held from August 24 to 27.[200] It was originally scheduled to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina, but due to disagreements with the state over COVID-19 social distancing rules, the speeches and celebrations were moved to Jacksonville, Florida (official convention business was still contractually obligated to be conducted in Charlotte).[201][202]

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was originally going to be held in Austin, Texas, over Memorial Day weekend from May 22 to 25,[203][204] but all reservations at the JW Marriott Downtown Austin for the convention were cancelled on April 26 due to the coronavirus pandemic.[205] It was eventually decided by the Libertarian Party national committee that the Libertarians will hold two conventions, one online from May 22–24 to select the presidential and vice-presidential nominees and one at a physical convention in Orlando, Florida from July 8–12 for other business.[206] Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen were nominated for president and vice-president, respectively.[207]

The 2020 Green National Convention was originally to be held in Detroit, Michigan from July 9 to 12.[208] However, due to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, it was instead decided to conduct the convention online, without a change in date.[209]

The 2020 Constitution National Convention was to be held in St. Louis, Missouri from April 29 to May 2,[210] but due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the party instead decided to hold a convention through a video conference from May 1 to May 2.[211] Don Blankenship was nominated for president on the second ballot, while William Mohr was nominated for vice president.[212]

Endorsements


General election debates


On October 11, 2019, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that three general election debates would be held in the fall of 2020. The first is scheduled to take place on September 29 at the University of Notre Dame in Notre Dame, Indiana, though whether it will still be held there is unclear,[213] the second is scheduled to take place on October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, and the third is scheduled to take place on October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.[214][215] The second debate was initially set to be held at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, but the university withdrew in June 2020, reportedly over concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.[216] Additionally, one vice presidential debate is scheduled for October 7, 2020, at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.[217]

General election polling


On June 10, 2020, the Trump campaign sent a cease and desist letter demanding that CNN retract its poll that had found Biden leading Trump 55%–41% along with a 38% approval rating for Trump.[218] The lawsuit threat was widely regarded as frivolous, with commenters comparing Trump’s actions to authoritarian regimes like that of Venezuela.[219]

State predictions


Most election predictors use:

State Electoral
votes
PVI[220] Previous
result
Cook
June 19,
2020
[221]
IE
April 3,
2020
[222]
Sabato
June 25,
2020
[223]
Politico
April 19,
2020
[224]
RCP
June 22,
2020
[225]
Niskanen
March 24,
2020
[226]
CNN
June 25,
2020
[227]
Alabama 9 R+14 62.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Alaska 3 R+9 51.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Arizona 11 R+5 48.9% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Arkansas 6 R+15 60.6% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
California 55 D+12 61.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Colorado 9 D+1 48.2% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D
Connecticut 7 D+6 54.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D
Delaware 3 D+6 53.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
District of Columbia 3 D+41 90.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Florida 29 R+2 49.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Georgia 16 R+5 50.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R
Hawaii 4 D+18 62.2% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Idaho 4 R+19 59.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Illinois 20 D+7 55.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
Indiana 11 R+9 56.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R
Iowa 6 R+3 51.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6 R+13 56.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Kentucky 8 R+15 62.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Louisiana 8 R+11 58.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Maine 2 D+3 47.8% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Safe D
ME-1 1 D+8 54.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
ME-2 1 R+2 51.3% R Likely R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R
Maryland 10 D+12 60.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Massachusetts 11 D+12 60.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Michigan 16 D+1 47.5% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Minnesota 10 D+1 46.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Mississippi 6 R+9 57.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Missouri 10 R+9 56.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R
Montana 3 R+11 56.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
Nebraska 2 R+14 58.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
NE-1 1 R+11 56.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
NE-2 1 R+4 47.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
NE-3 1 R+27 73.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Nevada 6 D+1 47.9% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D
New Hampshire 4 EVEN 47.0% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D
New Jersey 14 D+7 55.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
New Mexico 5 D+3 48.4% D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D
New York 29 D+11 59.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
North Carolina 15 R+3 49.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
North Dakota 3 R+16 63.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Ohio 18 R+3 51.7% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R
Oklahoma 7 R+20 65.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Oregon 7 D+5 50.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D
Pennsylvania 20 EVEN 48.2% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Rhode Island 4 D+10 54.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D
South Carolina 9 R+8 54.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R
South Dakota 3 R+14 61.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Tennessee 11 R+14 60.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Texas 38 R+8 52.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R
Utah 6 R+20 45.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Vermont 3 D+15 56.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Virginia 13 D+1 49.7% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D
Washington 12 D+7 52.5% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
West Virginia 5 R+19 68.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Wisconsin 10 EVEN 47.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Wyoming 3 R+25 67.4% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Overall 538 D – 248
R – 204
Tossup – 86
D – 262
R – 204
Tossup – 72
D – 268
R – 204
Tossup – 66
D – 222
R – 204
Tossup – 112
D – 222
R – 125
Tossup – 191
D – 289
R – 181
Tossup – 68
D – 232
R – 204
Tossup – 102


See also


Notes


  1. ^ Trump's official state of residence was New York in the 2016 election, but has since changed to Florida with his permanent residence switching from Trump Tower to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.[1]
  2. ^ Ronald Reagan, currently the oldest major party nominee to contest a presidential general election, was 73 when re-elected in 1984, whereas Biden will be 77 and Trump will be 74 on Election Day in 2020.
  3. ^ On Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021, Biden will be 78 years, 62 days old which is 79 days older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office on January 20, 1989. Other than inaugural President George Washington, no person has ever become the oldest serving president upon assuming office.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Candidate did not appear on any ballots.

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Categories: 2020 United States presidential election | History of the United States (1991–present) | Contemporary history of the United States | Joe Biden 2020 presidential campaign | Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign








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